It's the economy, stupid

When Bill Clinton began his 1992 campaign for the Presidency against incumbent George H.W. Bush, the future looked bleak. President Bush had recently set the record for the highest approval rating ever recorded among the American public (In March 1991, 90% of all Americans approved his presidency just one week after he invaded Iraq). But by election day, Clinton had reeled in enough votes to win the race. So what happened in between? A recession. Americans preferred Clinton's economic plan to Bush's, as Bush's would have brought more of the same. In the 1992 election, economy trumped foreign policy. 

As the phrase goes, history repeats itself. A poll taken between September 15-21 of this year shows that 54% of Americans see the economy as "one of the two most important issues for the Government to address." I believe that if the same Americans were polled again today, that percentage would be even higher. To think that one year ago (October 2007) only 13% of Americans saw the economy as the most important issue! So, what issue did Americans think was more important at that time? If you guessed the Iraq war, you're correct (http://www.harrisinteractive.com/harris_poll/index.asp?PID=806).  I think it's safe to say that in the 2008 election, the economy will once again trump foreign policy. 

The economy was the topic for most of last night's debate. McCain claims his proposal will fix the failing U.S. economy. McCain wanted Americans to know that this new proposal is his alone, saying "it's not Sen. Obama's proposal, it's not President Bush's proposal." Obama  blamed the state of the economy on President George W. Bush's "failed economic policies of the last eight years, strongly promoted by President Bush and supported by Senator McCain..." 

Reports from papers around the country including the New York Times and the Dallas Morning News agreed that McCain struggled while speaking about the economy but was much smoother than his opponent when speaking about Iraq. "Mr. McCain again seemed particularly comfortable when the questioning turned to foreign policy, suggesting that his opponent was inexperienced and lacked judgment in issues like how to deal with Pakistan," says Adam Nagourney of the New York Times. Like  President George H.W. Bush, foreign policy is McCain's strong point. 

During last night's debate Senator Obama said "I think everybody knows that we are in the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression." Is this true? Well, no one knows yet (never mind what the 24-hour cable news channels say -- they could make you believe that the world is ending if they tried). But here's what I know for sure: Like Bill Clinton, Obama is asserting that McCain's policies will be more of the same. By continuing to associate Senator McCain with President Bush's failed economic views, Obama has a pretty good chance of winning this election.